GIFT  OF 
Author 


The  Redistribution 

of  the" 

American 
Negro 


By  A.  S.  Van  de  Graaff 

| 

Tuscaloosa,  Alabama 
<f 


HE  presence  of  the  negro  in  the  South  in  dis- 
portionate  numbers   was  the  determining-  fac- 

•  tor  in  the  political  and  constitutional  history 

:  of  the  United  States  down  to.  1877.     From  the 
settlement  of  the  Tilden-Hayes  electoral  con- 

._  iest  the  race  problem  of  the  South  has  not  di 
rectly  influenced  federal  legislation.  l>ut  the  discussion  of 
that  problem  which  began  with  reconstruction  has  not  ceas 
ed,  and  perhaps  it  vet  remains  "the  subject  more  often  treat 
ed,  though  less  understood,  than  any  other  in  our  social 
life."  With  the  return  of  the  Republicans  to  power  it  has 
been  recently  resumed  in  Congresjand  though  it  does  not 
now  appear  that  legislation  will  result,  conditions  make 
it  probable  that  the-  discussion  is  to  become  more  general 
than  for  many  years  past.  L  have  thought  it  opportune  to 
present  facts  drawn  from  the  more  recent  census  reports 
which  strong! v  support  the  view  that  the  solution  of  the 
problem  which  was  the  legacy  of  slavery,  may  safely  be 
left  as  heretofore,  to  the  unaided  operation  of  the  funda 
mental  economic  principle  which  determines  the  move 
ments  of  men  in  freedom. 

My  studies  in  statistics  began  in  1884  with  the  reading 
of  Judge  Tourgee's  "Appeal  to  Caesar,"  an  argument  for 
federal  aid  to  education  in  the  South  based  upon  his  fore 
cast,  from  a  comparison  of  the  census  of  1880  with  those 
of  1860  and  1870,  that  before  this  time  we  would  have  in 
the  States  between  Maryland  and  Texas  "eight  black  re 
publics,"  in  which  the  preponderance  of  the  negroes  would 
be  so  great  as  to  compel  their  control.    Jiorn  in  Alabama, 
carried  from  it  in   1867  to  grow  up  on  the   Pacific   Coast, 
and  receiving  my  college  training  in  Xew  England,   I  had 
taken  "The  New  South"  as  my  commencement  theme,  and 
in  the  glow  of  boyish  sentiment  had  returned  to  the  State 
of  my  birth  as  my  chosen  home.     I  found  it  harder  to  dis 
regard  this  anticipation  of  the  author  of  "A  Eool's  Errand" 
than  it  had  been  to  put  aside  those  of  my  friends  who  had 
warned  against   Alabama's   backwardness,   and   what   then 
appeared    its    necessarily    abiding    malaria    and    recurrent 
yellow-fever.     His    forecast   was    not    only    supported   by 
what  also  then  appeared  the  facts  of  statistics,  but  how 
ever  unwelcome,  was  in  accord  with  my  own  first  impres 
sions.     I  had  never  forgotten  my  first  observed  Fourth  of 
July  in  1866,  when  the   grove  between  the  homes  of  my 
grandmothers',   where   I   had   seen   Forrest's   cavalry   gath 
ered  for  their  surrender  the  year  before,  overflowed  with 
what  had  lived  in  mv  child-memory  as  a  limitless   sea  of 


black  faces — a  recollection  recently  revived  by  the  sights 
of  "Big  Circus  Day"  at  the  county-seat  sixteen  miles 
away,  between  which  and  my  birth-place  I  was  told  that 
there  now  lived  but  a  single  white  family.  But  I  knew 
that  Alabama's  Black  Belt  was  here  hardly  more  than 
two  counties  wide ;  that  there  were  in  the  State  more 
"white"  counties  than  "black ;"  and  that  in  many  the  white 
majorities  were  relatively  greater  than  any  held  by  the 
blacks.  I  knew  too  that  it  was  in  the  white  counties  only 
that  the  stirrings  of  new  industrial  life  had  been  felt.  I 
went  to  the  census  reports  to  calculate  for  myself  the 
percentages  and  rates  of  increase  of  whites  and  blacks  in 
all  the  counties  of  Alabama,  and  I  did  not  stop  until  I  had 
them  for  every  county  in  every  other  Southern  State. 
Putting  down  my  results  upon  a  large  map  I  soon  saw 
things  that  were  comforting.  There  was  no  Southern 
State  in  which  the  unequal  distribution  of  the  negroes 
made  by  slavery  in  massing  them  upon  the  more  fertile 
soils,  had  not  left  as  in  Alabama,  differences  within  itself 
like  that  which  distinguished  South  from  North.  For 
much  the  greater  part  of  the  far-spread  and  diverse  terri 
tory  embraced  within  the  South  I  saw  that  its  race  prob 
lem  had  little  more  direct  or  immediate  significance  than 
for  the  North — the  percentage  of  negroes  was  too  small 
to  materially  affect  the  community  life.  I  soon  came  to 
believe  that  the  question  whether  the  South  was  to  be  per 
manently  differentiated  by  negro  populations  large  enough 
to  determine  standards  or  to  dominate,  was  to  turn  upon 
whether  the  negro  majori^Tes  placed  by  slavery  in  its  low 
lands  and  greater  river  valleys  were  to  remain  fixed  and 
to  grow  under  freedom,  or  on  the  other  hand,  to  diminish 
and  break  up.  And  when  the  returns  from  the  census  of 
1890  became  available  I  learned  that  the  rural-dwelling 
negro  was  nowhere  fixed,  but  everywhere  fluid ;  and  mov 
ing  not  only  "southward  and  westward"  as  stated  in  the 
general  report  of  that  census,  but  also  from  the  planta 
tions  into  the  towns  and  cities,  and  from  these  passing 
on  to  those  of  the  North — a  movement  not  yet  large 
enough  to  receive  general  recognition,  but  in  my  judgment 
much  the  more  significant.  For  my  fundamental  fact  of 
direct  observation  was  that  the  negro  was  failing  as  a 
farmer.  The  discipline  of  slavery  had  left  him  only  a 
"hand."  The  life  of  the  quarter  and  the  work  of  the 
squad  on  the  big  plantation  had  not  given  him  the  quali 
fications  required  of  the  successful  small  farmer,  self-re- 

(3) 


748403 


liancc  and  self-control,  and  strong-  love  for  home  and  fam 
ily — the  indispensable  attribute  of  a  stable  country-dwell 
ing  people.  And  my  anticipation  was  that  as  he  had  thus 
far  failed,  in  any  broad  view,  to  lit  into  any  new  agricul 
tural  relationship ;  as  he  had  failed  to  make  good  either  as 
wage -hand,  share-hald,  or  tenant  on  the  plantation,  so  he 
would  continue  to  fail,  and  would  continue  to  carry  his 
muscle  and  his  superior  fitness  for  work  admitting  of  be 
ing  done  in  massed  numbers  under  supervision  to  the 
cities  and  towns,  the  construction  camps  and  mining  dis 
tricts  ;  and  because  of  the  greater  demand  and  better  con 
ditions  there,  progressively  more  rapidly  as  he  came  to 
know  these,  into  the  larger  industrial  centers  and  muscle- 
markets  of  the  Xorth. 

This  observation  and  this  forecast  I  set  forth  in  a  former 
article  with  considerable  detail  and  elaboration  of  argu 
ment,  making  much  reference  to  the  different  "regions" 
developed  upon  my  map  by  my  racial  classification  of 
the  counties.  And  though  these  divisions  have  in  my  own 
thought  become  of  less  importance  now,  I  shall  retain 
them  in  this  attempt  to  show  that  my  "theory"  of  a  quar- 
ter-cx'iiturv  ago.  has  become  a  "condition,,"  as  President 
Cleveland  drew  the  distinction  between  the  words,  in  the 
present  discussion  of  the  question  under  consideration.  A 
brief  preliminary  statement  of  the  extent  of  the  South, 
however,  and  of  the  relative  proportions  of  the  two  races 
within  it  taken  as  a  whole,  may  be  helpful. 

My  South  includes  seventeen  States,  for  on  historical 
and  political  grounds  too  obvious  to  require  statement,  I 
have  included  Missouri,  and  excluded  the  Distrct  of  Co 
lumbia.  Extending  west  from  the  short  northern  boun 
dary  of  Delaware  with  Mason  and  Dixon's  Line,  the  Ohio 
River,  and  then  the  boundaries  of  Missouri,  Oklahoma,  and 
Texas,  to  the  Mexican  Border  beyond  El  Paso,  it  covers 
an  area  of  947,000  square-miles ;  'greater  by  97,000  than 
that  of  the  twenty  States,  which  with  the  District  of  Co 
lumbia,  will  in  this  article  be  designated  as  the  North, 
while  those  of  the  Mountain  and  Pacific  groups  will  be 
referred  to  as  the  West.  By  virtue  of  milder  climate, 
more  copious  and  more  constant  rainfall,  greater  variety 
of  agricultural  products  and  equal  if  not  superior  endow 
ment  in  the  natural  wealth  yielded  by  mine  and  forest  and 
in  those  modern  world-transforming  sources  of  energy, 
oil  and  water-power,  perhaps  better  adapted  than  either 
North  or  West  for  the  modern  industrial  civilization,  the 

(4) 


South  remained  in  1860  almost  entirely  dependent  upon 
agriculture,  and  held  only  30%  of  the  white  population  of 
the  United  States,  but  almost  95%  of  the  black.  The 
blacks  then  constituted  more  than  one-third  of  its  total 
population,  the  numbers  stated  in  thousands  being  8,037,- 
000  whites  and  4,201,000  blacks.  In  1920  the  numbers  were 
«3tZ,031,000  whites  and  8,981,000  blacks,  the  blacks  consti 
tuting  less  than  one-fourth  of  the  total.  Of  ^ the  three 
divisions  into  which  the  black  majority  counties  fell  on 
my  map,  the  "Texas  Black'  Belt"  was  never  of  importance 
except  as  separating  two  of  the  white  majority  regions. 
It  comprised  only  fifteen  counties  irregularly  grouped  in 
the  vicinity  of  the  City  of  Houston.  The  census  of  1890 
showed  the  white  rate  of  increase  to  be  the  greater,  and 
in  the  next  decade  this  ran  up  to  43%  against  a  black  rate 
of  16.  The  census  of  1910  showed  a  white  gain  of  only 
9%,  but  there  was  a  black  loss  of  7%:  seven  counties  had 
lost  their  black  majorities,  and  in  the  district  there  were 
128,000  whites  to  137,000  blacks,  the  black  percentage  fall 
ing  in  twenty  years  from  61  to  52.  The  persistence  of  this 
trend  down  to  1920,  which  may  be  confidently  assumed, 
though  as  yet  we  have  only  the  State  rates  of  increase'^— 
22%  for  the  whites  and  7%  for  the  blacks — will  have  caus 
ed  the  complete  disappearance  of  the  division  as  such. 

In  the  "Mississippi  Bottom,"  an  area  about  as  large  as 
Illinois,  and  sufficiently  described  by  its  name,  with  the 
added  statement  that  it  sends  a  narrow  branch  up  the 
Red  River  entirely  across  Louisiana,  the  black  percent 
age  in  1890  was  69,  and  in  several  of  its  counties  the  ne 
groes  outnumbered  the  whites  more  than  ten  to  one. 
Their  decennial  rate  of  increase  was  here  the  greater  also, 
owing  to  immigration  from  the  eastward.  But  in  the 
next  decade  this  was  more  than  offset  by  an  influx  of 
whites,  and  the  census  of  1910  showed  the  white  rate  to 
have  continued  to  rise  until  it  reached  25%,  while  the 
black  had  fallen  to  10%,  and  the  black  percentage  to  65, 
the  whites  numbering  763,000  and  the  blacks  1,350,000. 
We  have  no  complete  returns  from  the  census  of  1920  as 
to  the  counties  of  any  of  the  four  States  contributing  to 
this  region.  But  we  know  that  those  of  Louisiana  and  in 
larger  part  those  of  Mississippi  also,  felt  the  full  force  of 
the  boll-weevil  invasion  which  combined  with  the  insistent 
demands  of  the  northern  labor-market  during  the  world 
war  to  cause  the  first  real  exodus  of  negroes  from  the 
South.  Both  States  showed  loss  of  black  population  in 

(5) 


1920,  as  did  also  Tennessee,  while  Arkansas  dropped  its 
black  rate  of  increase  to  less  than  7% — the  lowest  in  its 
history.  \Ye  know  also  that  in  66  of  the  74  counties  of 
this  region  the  percentage  of  blacks  was  lowered — in 
many  of  them  heavily.  The  inference  is  strong  that  the 
relative  gain  of  the  whites  in  this  region  was  much  greater 
in  the  last  decade  than  in  that  preceding,  and  probably 
sufficient,  if  maintained,  to  make  it  easily  possible  for  the 
region  as  a  whole,  heavy  as  was  the  preponderance  of  its 
blacks,  to  follow  the  Texas  Black  Belt  into  the  column 
of  white  majorities  before  1940. 

Much  larger,  quite  different,  and  differing  much  more 
within  itself,  is  "The  Lowlands,"  our  third  region  of  black 
majorities,  in  which  these  were  never  unbroken,  however, 
and  none  at  any  time  attained  the  high  maximum  reach 
ed  in  the  Mississippi  Bottom,  from  which  its  western  end 
is  separated  only  by  the  width  of  single  counties  stretch 
ed  along  the  watershed  between  the  Yazoo  and  the  Toni- 
bigbee.  This  extends  in  a  strip  hardly  a  hundred  miles 
wide  southeast  across  Mississippi  and  Alabama  to  Mont 
gomery,  where  narrpwing  to  a  single  county  it  turns  as 
on  a  pivot  to  the  no'rtheast,  and  throwing  a  wedge  down 
the  valley  of  the  Chattahoochee  into  Florida,  holds  on 
across  middle  Georgia  to  widen  out  along  the  Savannah 
River  to  the  Atlantic  coast,  sending"  southward  along  this 
a  narrower  spur  down  into  Florida  again,  but  continuing 
in  its  greatest  width  northward  to  cover  all  of  South  Car 
olina  except  its  six  northwestern  counties ;  almost  the 
eastern  half  of  North  Carolina,  and  all  of  Tidewater  Vir 
ginia  ;  and  find  its  end  beyond  the  Potomac  in  the  three 
southernmost  counties  of  Maryland.  The  percentage  of 
blacks  in  1890  was  61,  but  this  was  the  average  between 
extremes  varying  from  more  than  85  in  some  counties  of 
Alabama  down  to  less  than  30  in  some  counties  of  North 
Carolina  across  which  the  black  majorities  were  not  un 
broken  even  in  1880,  and  in  which  wider  gaps  have  been 
opened  between  them  in  each  succeeding  decade  until  in 
1910  only  two  small  black  spots  appeared  on  the  southern 
border,  separated  by  more  than  one  hundred  miles  from 
another  on  the  coast-line,  and  by  an  equal  interval  from  a 
narrow  fringe  of  ten  counties  along  the  northern  boun 
dary  of  the  State — the  black  percentage  in  all  the  thir 
teen  counties  taken  together  being  only  55  and  in  only 
three  going  above  60.  In  Alabama  on  the  other  hand,  the 
twenty  black  counties  remained  unbroken,  and  though 

(6) 


fluctuating  somewhat  in  an  ebb  and  flow  that  has  seemed 
to   alternate   between  the   two   races   in  decennial   periods 
showed   the    same   black   percentage   of   72   in    1910   as   in 
1880.     Yet  even  in  this  region  of  wide  variations  and  sharp 
contradictions,   which   the   very   maps   themselves    present 
"rent   with   debate,   many-spotted   with   question,"   the   re 
cords  of  the  changes  and  shifting  currents  of  forty  years 
converge   to   show  beyond   question  the   same   process   of 
disintegration   for   the   black   majorities   in   all   its    extent. 
The   census   of    1890  placed  within   it   35   white   counties ; 
in   1900  there  were  52,  and  in   1910  there  were  69.     The 
census   of   1890  showed  the  whites  gaining  the  faster  in 
more  than  half  the  counties  ;  that  of  1910  raised  the  pro 
portion    to    near   two-thirds.      For    the    region   the    white 
rate    was   the   greater   at   each   census — 14%    against   8   in 
1890;  17  against  13  in  1900;  17  against  7  in  1910.     For  the 
twenty  year  period  ending  in  1910  the  numerical  increase 
of  the  white  minority  was  the  greater,  and  the  black  per 
centage  fell  to   59.     A  decline    much    greater    has    taken 
place  in  the  last  decade.     At  this  writing  we  have  the  full 
county  reports  only  for  Alabama; they  show  the  relative 
gain  of  the  whites  in  all  the  twenty  counties^the  absolute 
loss  of  the  blacks  in  all  but  three;  the  change  of  two  over 
to  white  majorities ;  and  in  the  aggregate  a  white  gain  of 
12%   against   a  black   loss   of   11% — changes   like   those   in 
the  Texas  Black  Belt  in  1910,  and  such  as  were  likewise 
then  shown   at  the   other   end  of  this   region  in  Virginia. 
No  less  significant  of  the  decisive  turn  at  last  reached  in 
this   region  also,  is   the   drop   in  the  black   percentage   of 
the  State  of  South  Carolina  between  1910  and  1920  from 
55  to  51,  the  lowest  since  1810.    With  South  Carolina  lead 
ing  the  way,  this  region  also  may  in  its   entirety  follow 
the  Texas  Black  Belt  in  1930:    at    all    events    it  must  be 
broken  into  segments  isolated  like  the  Texas  Black  Belt, 
and  hardly  larger ;  and  all  destined  to  repeat  its  history. 
Of  the  white  majority  regions  the  "Gulf  Coast"  includes 
more  than  four-fifths  of  Florida ;  one-fourth  of  both  Geor 
gia  and  Alabama ;  one-third  of  Mississippi,    in    which    it 
reaches  up  to  a  junction  with  the  "Upland  South";  one- 
fourth  of  Louisiana,  and  twenty-five  counties  of   eastern 
Texas.     In  18$0  the  black  percentage  was  33;  for  the  two 
succeeding   decades   there   was   a   continued   heavy   immi 
gration  of  both  races,  the  blacks  coming  in  to  work  in  the 
turpentine  and  lumber  industries  of  its  large  forest  areas, 
and  showing  a  slightly  greater  rate  of  increase  though  not 

(7)   . 


enough  to  materially  raise  their  percentage,  the  white 
population  in  1910.  numbering  2,173,000  and  the  black 
1,074,000.  With  the  decline  of  its  turpentine  and  lumber 
production  in  the  last  ten  years,  there  has  been  a  cessa 
tion  of  negro  immigration  and  probably  some  emigration. 
In  all  Florida  in  1920  the  black  rate  was  only  7%,  against 
a  white  rate  of  44% ;  and  in  the  fourteen  counties  of  Ala 
bama  entering  into  this  region  the  black  rate  was  but  4% 
against  18  for  the  whites. 

In  the  "Western  South"  there  are  included  one-seventh 
of  Louisiana,  six-sevenths  of  Texas,  four-fifths  of  Arkan 
sas,  and  all  of  Oklahoma  and  Missouri — 414,000  square- 
miles,  or  44%  of  the  South's  entire  area.  Here  the  black 
percentage  in  1890  wras  only  11.  Here  there  wras  also  a 
continued  heavy  immigration  of  both  races  for  the  next 
twenty  years  but  the  whites  led  with  a  gain  of  69%  against 
51.  In  1910  there  were  8,334,000  whites  and  913,000  blacks, 
the  black  percentage  having  fallen  to  a  little  less  than  10. 

The  "Upland  South"  includes  all  of  Delaware,  West  Vir 
ginia,  and  Kentucky ;  all  but  three  counties  of  both  Mary 
land  and  Tennessee;  something  more  than  half  of  Vir 
ginia,  of  North  Carolina,  and  of  Alabama;  a  fourth  of 
Georgia,  and  the  six  northwestern  counties  of  South  Car 
olina  and  nine  northeastern  counties  of  Mississippi.  Its 
area  is  210,000  square-miles,  slightly  more  than  one-half 
that  of  the  Western  South.  In  1890  its  white  population 
was  four  times  greater  than  its  black,  and  the  white  rate 
of  increase  was  more  than  twice  the  black — 19%  to  8.  In 
the  twenty  years  following  the  whites  increased  by  2,524,- 
000  or  36%  to  9,591,000;  while  the  blacks  increased  by  only 
256,000  or  15%  to  1,974,000,  constituting  but  one-sixth  of 
the  total  population.  Of  its  493  counties  251  showed  a 
loss  of  blacks  in  1890;  194  in  1900;  310  in  1910.  For  the 
thirty  years  the  only  substantial  gains  for  the  blacks  were 
in  the  counties  containing  cities  or  belonging  to  mineral 
districts.  In  all  agricultural  districts  the  loss  of  black 
population  has  been  steady,  and  cumulatively  quite  con 
siderable.  In  the  seven  counties  of  the  Tennessee  Valley 
in  Alabama  the  black  percentage  fell  from  43  in  1860  to  25 
in  1920.  In  Kentucky  a  loss  of  23,000  blacks  in  1910  was 
followed  by  one  of  26,000  in  1920,  although  the  State  holds 
important  and  growing  mineral  districts.  Of  its  119  coun 
ties  78  showed  loss  of  blacks  in  1890;  60  in  1900;  94  in 
1910;  104  in  1920.  So  of  the  91  counties  of  Tennessee  in 
this  region.  50  showed  such  losses  in  1890;  42  in  1900;  72 

(8) 


in  1910;  75  in  1920;  and  of  the  54  counties  from  Virginia, 
39  in  1890;  40  in  1900;  44  in  1910.  Even  in  West  Virginia 
where  the  black  immigration  into  the  coal-mining  coun 
ties  was  sufficient  to  make  the  black  rate  for  the  State  the 
greater  both  in  1900  and  1910,  there  were  like  losss  in  24 
of  the  54  counties  in  1890;  in  19  in  1900;  in  24  in  1910;  in 
27  in  1922.  And  in  only  12  counties  of  this  State  were 
there  as  many  as  1000  negroes  in  1910,  and  4  of  these  held 
57%  of  all  its  negroes.  The  black  percentage  of  its  popu 
lation  was  materially -less  than  that  for  the  United  States 
as  a  whole;  and  included  in  the  Upland  and  Western  re 
gions  together  there  is  much  more  than  half  of  the  entire 
area  of  the  South  for  which  this  is  true.  Upon  a  recent 
railroad  journey  through  one  of  the  most  beautflul  and 
closely  cultivated  sections  of  the  Upland  South,  an  ob 
server  keeping  lookout  from  daylight  to  dark,  saw  only 
three  negroes  at  work  in  the  fields — and  these  together— 
among  the  thousands  of  whites  busy  both  in  the  harvest 
ing  and  cultivation  of  their  crops.  Similar  results,  but 
none  quite  so  impressive,  have  been  obtained  before.  Such 
observations  are  of  course  only  suggestive — not  convinc 
ing,  but  they  are  in  line  with  census  returns.  In  Kentucky 
the  census  of  1920  showed  32  counties  with  less  than  2% 
of  negroes  :  in  Tennessee  there  were  32  with  less  than  5%  \ 
in  Arkansas  there  were  15  with  less  than  1%. 

The  cumulative  effect  of  our  statistical  facts  may  per 
haps  be  better  realized  by  contrasting  the  three  white 
regions  with  the  three  black.  Upon  four-fifths  of  the 
South's  area,  then,  in  1910  there  were  20,097,000  whites 
and  3,960,000  blacks,  the  blacks  constituting  less  than  one- 
sixth  of  the  total  population.  The  twenty  year  gains  were 
for  whites,  6,936,000;  for  blacks.  1,070,000.  Upon  the  re 
maining  one-fifth  there  were  3,348,000  whites,  and  4,851,000 
blacks^the  black  percentage  being  59;  twenty  year  gains 
were  for  the  whites,  46%  or  1,058,000;  for  the  blacks  24% 
or  926,000. 

If  we  make  a  geographical  division  and  contrast  an 
Upper  South  made  up  of  the  Upland  and  Western  regions, 
with  the  other  four  as  the  Lower  South,  we  have  for  the 
upper  two-thirds  of  the  South  area  17,924,000  whites,  and 
2,887,000  blacks,  the  black  percentage  being  14:  the 
twenty  year  gains,  for  whites  5,921,000  or  49%;  for  blacks, 
565,000  or  24%;  and  for  the  lower  third  5,522,000  whites 
and  5,925,000  blacks,  the  black  percentage  being  52 ;  and 

(9) 


the   twenty   year   gains    for    whites   2,072,000   or   60%,   for 
blacks  1,430,000  or  32%. 

If  without  any  grouping  we  simply  contrast  the  aggre 
gates  of  the  white  majority  counties  wherever  situated, 
we  have  more  than  nine-tenths  of  the  whites  of  the  South 
or  21.405.000  occupying  85%  of  its  area  along  with  4,954,- 
000  blacks,  whom  they  outnumber  more  than  four  to  one  : 
and  less  than  one-tenth  or  2,043,000  occupying  the  remain 
ing  157r  along  with  3,859,000  blacks,  by  whom  they  wrere 
outnumbered  less  than  two  to  one. 

This  relative  distribution  and  growth  of  the  two  races 
within  the   South  itself  as   developed  down  to    1910  only, 
had   seemed   to   myself   to    show   the   working   out   of   our 
suggested    solution   of   its    race    problem   to   be   both    cer 
tain  and  already  near  at  hand.     Certainly  no  De  Tocque- 
ville  traveling  America  and  studying  that  problem  in  the 
period   immediately  preceding  the   world  war,   even  if  he 
adhered  to  the  view  of  his  predecessor  of  the  nineteenth 
century  that  conflict  between  the  races  in  the  South  was 
inevitable,  could  also  have  believed  the  help  of  their  broth 
ers   in  the   North  necessary  to   assure  the   success   of  the 
whites.     As  De  Tocqueville   wrote  of  the   situation  of  the 
blacks   in  the  United   States   after  the   census   of   1830,   so 
eighty  years  later  it  might  have  bee^i  written  of  their  po 
sition  in  the  South  taken  by  itself*— the  blacks  are  placed 
between  the  ocean  and  an  innumerable  people,  which  al 
ready   extends   over  them   in  a  dense    mass,"    not    as    he 
wrote,  "from  the  icy  confines  of  Canada  to  the  frontiers 
of  Virginia,   and  from   the  banks  of   the   Missouri   to   the 
Atlantic,"  but  within  limits  drawn  much  closer,  from  the 
banks  of  the  Delaware  to  the  Rio  Grande,  and  from  the 
eastern   foothills   of   the   Alleghanies   back   to   the   Missis 
sippi,  and  beyond  the  Missssippi  in  even  great^jfx  breadth 
and  preponderant  mass.     But  there  is  to  be  no  such  racial 
conflict,  no  such  catastrophe,  no  such  explosion,  as  it  was 
predicted  by  De  Tocqueville  and  feared  by  Calhoun,  would 
follow   emancipation.     The     safety-valve    was    long   since 
opened  by  the  civil  war — the  volume  of  its  discharge  was 
only  made  greater  by  that  world  war  of  which  it  has  been 
well   said  that  "one  wholly  unloaked  for  result  has  been 
to  reveal  the  color  line  as  the  question  of  the  twentieth 
century."     If  De  Tocqueville  could  again  voyage  down  the 
Ohio   and  contrast  the  two  banks,  he   might  yet  observe 
lingering    traces    of    slavery's    baleful    influence    upon    the 

(10) 


left.  But  for  more  than  half  a  century  both  banks  have 
been  alike  free,  and  close  observer  as  he  was,  he  could  not 
fail  to  discern  the  change  brought  to  the  right  bank  also 
by  the  coming  of  freedom  on  the  left.  There  are  now 
more  blacks  in  the  border  States  of  the  North  than  in  the 
border  States  of  the  South.  On  the  northern  side  of  the 
old  line  of  divergence  which  the  civil  war  removed,  the 
number  of  negroes  has  been  increasing  through  all  of 
fifty-six  years  and  has  had  its  greatest  increase  within 
the  last  four.  On  the  southern  side  there  has  been  as 
steady  a  decline,  at  first  only  relative  but  later  absolute, 
until  in  Kentucky  there  are  now  fewer  negroes  than  in 
I860,  and  the  black  percentage  of  its  population  has  be 
come  less  than  that  for  the  United  States  as  a  whole ; 
until  also,  as  is  even  more  significant,  the  last  census  has 
shown  the  loss  of  black  population  in  all  the  four  contigu 
ous  subjacent  States — Tennessee,  Alabama,  Mississippi, 
and  Louisiana.  This  radical  change  of  trend — this  de 
cisive  turn  toward  uniformity  in  the  redistribution  of  the 
negroes  between  North  and  South  under  the  conditions 
of  freedom,  is  thus  shown  to  have  already  operated  over 
wide  areas,  and  it  is  now  being  extended  over  the  whole 
country.  The  movement  of  the  blacks  out  of  the  South 
assumed  proportions  during  the  world  war  which  have 
caused  the  returns  of  the  census  of  1920  to  be  received  as 
a  revelation  and  heralded  as  sensational  by  some  northern 
editors.  They  should  not  have  been  such  to  any  close  ob 
server,  or  student  of  statistics.  The  movement  has  been 
continuous  since  the  surrender  of  the  armies  of  the  Con 
federacy,  and  its  expansion  was  a  logical  anticipation.  But 
the  cumulative  influences  of  the  war  and  of  the  boll- weevil 
invasion  have  quickened  it  beyond  all  expectation.  Con 
trasts  are  now  presented  between  groups  of  States,  north 
ern  and  southern,  even  more  striking  than  those  between 
the  different  regions  of  the  South  resulting  from  the  use  of 
the  county  as  the  geographical  racial  unit  thirty  years 
ago.  Down  to  1910  the  immigration  of  the  blacks  into  the 
North  was  pretty  well  confined  to  the  border  States  from 
Illinois  to  New  Jersey,  and  to  the  City  of  New  York.  To 
this  northern  territory  in  order  to  equalize  area  with  that 
of  my  Upland  South  1  used  to  add  the  District  of  Colum 
bia,  the  three  lower  ^vew  England  States,  and  the  part  of 
New  York  south  of  a  line  drawn  from  Massachusetts' 
northwest  corner  to  Pennsylvania's  northeast,  making  up 
a  total  of  206.000  square-miles  against  210,000.  This  "Ne- 

(11) 


gro  Canaan"  as  I  named  it,  in  1910  held  840,000  blacks 
whose  decennial  rate  of  21%  compared  with  one  of  less 
than  4%  for  the  1,974,000  blacks  of  the  Upland  South.  It 
contrasted  in  another  way  with  the  Western  South,  an 
area  twice  as  large  holding  only  912,000  negroes.  Even 
then  a  more  informing  comparison — certainly  one  more 
readily  followed — would  have  been  afforded  by  adding  to 
the  northern  territory  the  remainder  of  New  York,  rais 
ing  the  area  to  246,000  square-miles,  and  contrasting  with 
the  227,000  of  the  five  southern  border  States,  Delaware, 
Maryland,  West  Virginia,  Kentucky,  and  Missouri,  with 
Tennessee  and  Virginia  added.  In  the  northern  group 
there  were  856,000  blacks  with  a  decennial  gain  of  147.000 ; 
in  the  southern  1,891,000  with  a  decennial  loss  of  5,000; 
the  half-century  gains  were  in  the  northern  632,000  or 
28«J% ;  in  the  southern  512,000  or  37%  only.  Now,  from 
the  returns  of  the  census  of  1920  we  find  in  the  northern 
group  1,236,000  blacks  showing  a  decennial  gain  of  380,000 
or  44%;  and  in  the  southern  1,917,000,  showing-  a  gain  of 
26,000  or  less  than  \y2%.  And  if  we  again  extend  the 
comparison  back  to  1860,  as  the  beginning  of  the  new  dis 
pensation,  we  have  in  the  northern  area  an  increase  of 
1,002,000  negroes  or  448%,  against  one  of  538,000,  or  40% 
only,  in  the  southern. 

A  still  more  striking  comparison  from  the  returns  of 
1920  is  that  between  the  seven  great  States  of  the  North 
leading  in  negro  population,  New  York,  New  Jersey, 
Pennsylvania,  Ohio,  Indiana,  Illinois,  and  Michigan,  with 
the  District  of  Columbia  added  as  before,  and  those  six 
States  of  the  Lower  South — South  Carolina,  Georgia, 
Florida,  Alabama,  Mississippi,  and  Louisiana — in  which  in 
1830  there  was  already  that  "black  population  accumulat 
ed  along  the  Gulf  of  Mexico"  which  De  Tocqueville 
thought  "would  have  a  chance  of  success,  if  the  American 
Union  is  dissolved  when  the  struggle  between  the  two 
races  begins."  These  were  also  six  of  Judge  Tourgje's 
"eight  black  republics,"  and  for  them  his  anticipation 
seemed  much  better  grounded  than  for  North  Carolina  and 
Virginia,  for  in  1860  the  two  races  had  stood  in  them  on 
practically  even  terms,  whites  outnumbering  blacks  by 
only  32,000,  whereas  in  1880  the  blacks  outnumbered  the 
whites  by  243,000.  But  while  the  blacks  still  led  in  1900 
by  25,000,  in  1910  the  whites  held  a  majority  of  557,000, 
and  this  had  grown  in  1920  to  1,607,000.  This  rapid  rela 
tive  gain  of  the  whites  it  itself  striking  enough,  but  the 

(12) 


difference  between  the  rates  of  growth  of  the  black  pop 
ulation  in  this  supposedly  most  congenial  habitat,  and 
that  of  the  widely  differing  northern  area,  is  even  more 
so.  In  the  northern  territory  of  290,000  square-miles  in 
1860  there  were  202,500  negroes  :  in  the  southern  of  287,- 
000  square-miles,  2,166,000.  In  1920  there  were  in  the 
northern  1,219,000  negroes,  showing  a  decennial  gain  of 
409,000  or  50%;  in  the  southern  4,957,000,  showing  a  de 
cennial  loss  of  16,000.  For  the  successive  twenty  year 
periods  beginning  with  1860-80  the  rates  of  increase  in 
the  northern  were  respectively  112,  55,  and  83%:  in  the 
southern  4*7,  39,  and  11%. 

This  contrast  may  be  startling,  but  that  the  figures  are 
only  typical  may  be  seen  by  comparing  the  black  rates  of 
increase  for  the  three  great  divisions — North,  West,  and 
South — as  denned  above.  For  the  last  three  decades  be 
ginning  with  that  ending  in  1920  these  rates  have  been 
in  the  North,  46,  20,  and  25% ;  in  the  West  55,  68,  and  12%  ; 
in  the  South  2,  10,  and  17%.  For  the  three  twenty  year 
periods  since  1860,  beginning  with  that  ending  in  1920,  in 
the  North  74,  52,  and  124%;  in  the  West,  160,  156,  and 
165%;  in  the  South  12,  32,  and  42%. 


W^hat  is  to  be  the  effect  of  this  migration  of  the  ne 
groes,  if  it  is  to  go  on,  as  certainly  it  must  if  our  analysis 
of  its  origin  is  sound,  with  the  boll-weevil  still  stripping 
the  cotton  fields,  and  with  the  restriction  put  by  the  war 
upon  foreign  immigration  now  continued  by  lawr  ? 

For  the  immediate  future,  in  the  cotton-growing  parts 
of  the  South,  still  more  land  lying  out,  or  passing  from 
tillage  to  pasture ;  in  some  parts  of  the  North,  possibly 
even  some  touch  of  alarm-  or  apprehension,  if  we  can  take 
seriously  the  report  telegraphed  from  Washington  to 
southern  papers  last  spring,  that  "Cincinnati  policemen, 
noting  the  arrival  of  innumerable  negroes  from  Southern 
States  and  fearing  trouble,  have  appealed  to  the  Wrar  De 
partment  for  rifles" ;  perhaps,  more  probably,  something 
more  of  that  small  labor  upset  complained  of  last  March 
by  the  general  secretary  of  the  Nebraska  Chamber  of 
Commerce  w^ho  wrote  from  Omaha  to  commercial  sec 
retaries  in  Alabama  as  follows :  "In  these  days  of  un- 

(13) 


employment  the  situation  in  many  of  our  northern  cities 
is  being  complicated  by  the  influx  of  southern  negroes. 
They  do  not  mix  well  with  negroes  natives  of  the  North 
or  of  long  residence  here.  In  your  opinion  can  anything 
be  done  in  your  State*  to  stop  this  movement  ?  Will  the 
South  need  "this  labor  when  normal  conditions  return?" 

But  in  the  long  run  and  in  the  broad  view,  only  good 
can  come  from  the  continuance  of  the  movement  to  both 
South  and  North,  and  to  whites  and  blacks  alike.  In  no 
State  of  the  North  was  the  percentage  of  blacks  as  high 
as  4  in  1920,  and  in  only  six  States  did  it  reach  2.  With 
the  first  turn  of  the  industrial  tide  the  cities  and  indus 
tries  of  both  North  and  West  will  again  need  and  bid 
for  negro  labor.  For  the  South  answer  might  well  have 
been  made  to  the  Nebraska  inquiry  by  the  Secretary  of 
the  Montgomery  Chamber  of  Commerce,  which  within  six 
months  preceding  had  raised  $100,000,  NOT  to  bring  back 
any  of  the  16,000  negroes  Montgomery  County  lost  be 
tween  1910  and  1920,  but  to  induce  the  coming  of  white 
farmers  from  North  and  West.  Now  as  twenty-five  years 
ago  it  is  plainly  to  be  seen  in  agricultural  Alabama  that 
progress  and  prosperity  for  counties  and  communities 
large  and  small,  vary  in  inverse  proportion  to  the  relative 
numbers  of  their  blacks.  Wherever  the  negroes  are  in 
the  majority  there  is  stagnation  and  decay.  And  this  holds 
in  other  realms  than  the  material.  The  negro  has  risen 
and  is  to  continue  to  rise  in  America.  But  it  is  none  the 
less  true  that  American  standards  are  to  remain  white 
standards,  and  community  standards  ought  everywhere 
to  be  fixed  by  the  whites.  If  the  number  of  negroes  be 
such  that  by  their  mere  mass  they  fix  the  community 
standards,  these  decline ;  the  negroes  rise  more  slowly,  if 
they  rise  at  all ;  and  the  whites,  who  live  with  them,  may 
themselves  sink  toward  a  lower  level.  This  has  been  al 
ways  felt,  if  not  declared  in  words,  in  the  South.  The 
life  of  its  black  belts  has  not  been  acceptable  to  the  white 
man — the  standards,  political,  industrial,  and  other,  of  the 
black  belts,  have  been  hardly  less  unsatisfactory  to  t1 
southern  white  man  than  to  the  man  of  the  North. 


Not  alone  the  breaking  up  of  the  big  plantation  was 
needed  for  the  realization  of  Lanier's  vision  of  "The  New 
South" — his  last  prose  essay  written  just  before  his  death 


— the  passing  of  the  black  belt  was  also  required.  This  is 
now  at  hand,  and  with  it  will  also  pass  that  "Solid  South," 
which  rose  out  of  it  in  the  last  century,  and  come  that 
"more  perfect  and  indivisible  Union,'-  with  parties  no 
longer  sectional  but  truly  national,  which  was  the  aspi- 
tation  of  Webster  and  Clay  and  Calhoun  alike. 

A.  S.  VAN  DE  GRAFF; 
Tuscaloosa.  Ala 


US) 


IS  DUE  ON  THE  LAST 
BELOW 


14  DAY  USE 

>ESK  FROM  WHICH  BORROWED 

LOAN  DEPT. 

This  book  is  due  on  the  last  date  stamped  below,  of 

oa  die  date  to  which  renewed. 
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A"R  n  9  1995 


rf  RF.nKEi.EY 


LD  2lA-45m-9,'67 
(H5067slO)476B 


General  Library 

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